The Arizona Republic - June 2008
Valley home resale activity increased in May over the previous month but still lagged behind the pace of a year earlier, according to the latest Arizona State University Realty Studies report.
There were 4,265 home resales in May, compared with April's total of 3,760 sales, ASU reported. Both figures exclude foreclosure transactions.
Home resales totaled 4,915 in May 2007, according to the report. Realty Studies Director Jay Butler said May is typically a strong month for home sales.
Still, he said factors such as job losses and layoffs are weakening the economy and likely will add further stress to the housing market.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Smart Ways To Profit From Foreclosures
Forbes.com - June 2008
With 700,000 bank-owned homes on the market, and another one million in some state of foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac, an Encino, Calif., provider of foreclosure listings, you might be tempted to add a distressed property to your portfolio.
Beware. Buying a home in foreclosure is not for the meek. Those with an appetite for risk, however, will find the tumultuous market stocked with plenty of investment opportunities.
These may include the sale of brand new luxury homes in an upscale Nashville community for half their marked value or a bank giving away a foreclosed property in a poor Detroit neighborhood for back maintenance.
But this complex arena is teeming with professionals. Private equity juggernaut Blackstone Group alone this year raised an $11 billion war chest to chase distressed properties, and large homebuilders looking to recapitalize, like Centex and Lennar, unloaded over $1.5 billion in homes to vulture funds between December 2007 and April 2008, for between 30 and 40 cents on the dollar.
Whether you're looking to flip a home, buy into a neighborhood you couldn't otherwise afford or planning to rent the home, you, like these big companies, must have heaps of cash on hand.
There are properties that can be turned within a few months, but the overall market is still slow. Even if you have a renter lined up or have enough money for a 10% to 20% down payment, you should be ready to weather a depressed market for another two or three years.
Go to the county assessor's office and study recent sales for price-per-square foot and time spent on market to determine what sort of price you can expect at resale. Be conservative. If you are renting, calculate a capitalization rate, and subtract 10% or more of the annual yield for maintenance and depreciation. Make sure that your endeavor is still profitable if you incur two to three years of carrying costs and depreciation.
It's also crucial to remember that bad loans that plagued speculators and unprepared borrowers don't simply disappear when distressed owners sell their properties. Unless the property goes through foreclosure auction and becomes bank-owned, outstanding liens and fees are simply transferred to the new owner. If you plan to buy out of pre-foreclosure, make sure the property has a clean title; otherwise you'll just be trading places with the distressed homeowner.
In such situations, outstanding fees, second liens and the like aren't automatically washed away. It isn't always the case that pre-foreclosure homes lack clear title, but once a home goes into the auction on the courthouse steps and is bought back by the bank, it is clear of all the bad loans that got the original owner into trouble. Making sure a home has clean title is a critical first step to a sound investment.
It's also important to note that you make money on a foreclosure the moment you buy the home. You can make a good return if you're selling in a sinking market, for example, by unloading a home at 70 cents on the dollar, if you bought it for 50 cents on the dollar. In heavily hit foreclosure areas, banks are juggling so many properties that offers on distressed homes, out-of-business homebuilders' developments and excess inventory are being entertained at under-listing prices.
Just don't get attached. As in any market, falling in love with a home--and overpaying--is a surefire way to lose money in a highly risky one.
When you've located an appealing property, order a new appraisal and study foreclosure patterns in the neighborhood. You'll also want to explore creative financing options to defer costs.
However you do the math, the most important thing to keep in mind is that the investment has to be worthwhile--even if you can't sell the home at your desired price for two or three years and the current housing market deteriorates a further 10% to 20%.
If that's a model you can live with, it might be time for a subscription to a foreclosure listing service.
With 700,000 bank-owned homes on the market, and another one million in some state of foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac, an Encino, Calif., provider of foreclosure listings, you might be tempted to add a distressed property to your portfolio.
Beware. Buying a home in foreclosure is not for the meek. Those with an appetite for risk, however, will find the tumultuous market stocked with plenty of investment opportunities.
These may include the sale of brand new luxury homes in an upscale Nashville community for half their marked value or a bank giving away a foreclosed property in a poor Detroit neighborhood for back maintenance.
But this complex arena is teeming with professionals. Private equity juggernaut Blackstone Group alone this year raised an $11 billion war chest to chase distressed properties, and large homebuilders looking to recapitalize, like Centex and Lennar, unloaded over $1.5 billion in homes to vulture funds between December 2007 and April 2008, for between 30 and 40 cents on the dollar.
Whether you're looking to flip a home, buy into a neighborhood you couldn't otherwise afford or planning to rent the home, you, like these big companies, must have heaps of cash on hand.
There are properties that can be turned within a few months, but the overall market is still slow. Even if you have a renter lined up or have enough money for a 10% to 20% down payment, you should be ready to weather a depressed market for another two or three years.
Go to the county assessor's office and study recent sales for price-per-square foot and time spent on market to determine what sort of price you can expect at resale. Be conservative. If you are renting, calculate a capitalization rate, and subtract 10% or more of the annual yield for maintenance and depreciation. Make sure that your endeavor is still profitable if you incur two to three years of carrying costs and depreciation.
It's also crucial to remember that bad loans that plagued speculators and unprepared borrowers don't simply disappear when distressed owners sell their properties. Unless the property goes through foreclosure auction and becomes bank-owned, outstanding liens and fees are simply transferred to the new owner. If you plan to buy out of pre-foreclosure, make sure the property has a clean title; otherwise you'll just be trading places with the distressed homeowner.
In such situations, outstanding fees, second liens and the like aren't automatically washed away. It isn't always the case that pre-foreclosure homes lack clear title, but once a home goes into the auction on the courthouse steps and is bought back by the bank, it is clear of all the bad loans that got the original owner into trouble. Making sure a home has clean title is a critical first step to a sound investment.
It's also important to note that you make money on a foreclosure the moment you buy the home. You can make a good return if you're selling in a sinking market, for example, by unloading a home at 70 cents on the dollar, if you bought it for 50 cents on the dollar. In heavily hit foreclosure areas, banks are juggling so many properties that offers on distressed homes, out-of-business homebuilders' developments and excess inventory are being entertained at under-listing prices.
Just don't get attached. As in any market, falling in love with a home--and overpaying--is a surefire way to lose money in a highly risky one.
When you've located an appealing property, order a new appraisal and study foreclosure patterns in the neighborhood. You'll also want to explore creative financing options to defer costs.
However you do the math, the most important thing to keep in mind is that the investment has to be worthwhile--even if you can't sell the home at your desired price for two or three years and the current housing market deteriorates a further 10% to 20%.
If that's a model you can live with, it might be time for a subscription to a foreclosure listing service.
Down market doesn't stop some builders from new developments
Tribune - June 2008
For many Valley builders, launching new housing developments amid a languishing real estate market and ailing economy isn't an option.
Experts say most are still busy purging excess speculative houses.
But a few builders are bucking the trend and starting work on new master-planned communities with thousands of homes - betting the right price and location will entice buyers.
Tempe-based Fulton Homes opened sales today for its latest project, called Ironwood Crossing - a 2,100-home master-planned community near Queen Creek.
"Houses are selling if they're priced right, if they're in good shape and in a good area," said Dennis Webb, Fulton's vice president of operations.
Located at Ironwood and Ocotillo roads, the development is closer to the urban center than areas like Johnson Ranch and Florence, but it's still affordable, Webb said.
And price is key.
When Fulton began planning out the project three years ago, prices were originally set from the mid-$200,000s up to $450,000.
Now, houses start at just less than $150,000 for starter homes and reach up to $300,000 for a more-than-4,000-square-foot house.
The company was able to cut prices by redesigning the houses, Webb said. Laminate countertops became standard instead of granite. And 10-foot ceilings were lowered to 9 feet.
"It doesn't sound like a lot, but it makes a big difference," he said.
Fulton isn't the only builder moving forward on projects.
Blandford Homes recently started work on a 1,200-home development, called Mountain Bridge, at McKellips and Hawes roads in northeast Mesa.
"Just because the market is down doesn't necessarily mean it wouldn't be a good time to enter the market," said Ben Sage, head of Houston-based Metrostudy's Arizona division.
Some builders want to be prepared for the market's return. Others have poured so much money into projects, it's not that much more expensive to build some model homes, Sage said. In Blandford's case, the local builder isn't burdened by dozens of other communities like some larger builders, he said.
Fulton, a private company, also has an advantage over big public builders which must answer to stockholders, Webb said. Fulton is still profitable, he added.
"We haven't just given away houses because we had to," Webb said.
John Fioramonti, with Scottsdale-based Meyers Builder Advisors, said this is the first time he's seen Fulton offer homes less than $200,000. Even so, they'll be competing with dozens of other new-home communities and prices that are closer to $120,000, Fioramonti said.
"Queen Creek is just a tough area," he said.
Still, Queen Creek is well-positioned to feed growing employment centers, such as the Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport area in Mesa and parts of Gilbert, said market analyst RL Brown.
Blandford also has a good location, which is one of the last areas to build in that part of Mesa and is close to employment centers, Brown said.
"Everybody's commute-sensitive right now," he said.
For many Valley builders, launching new housing developments amid a languishing real estate market and ailing economy isn't an option.
Experts say most are still busy purging excess speculative houses.
But a few builders are bucking the trend and starting work on new master-planned communities with thousands of homes - betting the right price and location will entice buyers.
Tempe-based Fulton Homes opened sales today for its latest project, called Ironwood Crossing - a 2,100-home master-planned community near Queen Creek.
"Houses are selling if they're priced right, if they're in good shape and in a good area," said Dennis Webb, Fulton's vice president of operations.
Located at Ironwood and Ocotillo roads, the development is closer to the urban center than areas like Johnson Ranch and Florence, but it's still affordable, Webb said.
And price is key.
When Fulton began planning out the project three years ago, prices were originally set from the mid-$200,000s up to $450,000.
Now, houses start at just less than $150,000 for starter homes and reach up to $300,000 for a more-than-4,000-square-foot house.
The company was able to cut prices by redesigning the houses, Webb said. Laminate countertops became standard instead of granite. And 10-foot ceilings were lowered to 9 feet.
"It doesn't sound like a lot, but it makes a big difference," he said.
Fulton isn't the only builder moving forward on projects.
Blandford Homes recently started work on a 1,200-home development, called Mountain Bridge, at McKellips and Hawes roads in northeast Mesa.
"Just because the market is down doesn't necessarily mean it wouldn't be a good time to enter the market," said Ben Sage, head of Houston-based Metrostudy's Arizona division.
Some builders want to be prepared for the market's return. Others have poured so much money into projects, it's not that much more expensive to build some model homes, Sage said. In Blandford's case, the local builder isn't burdened by dozens of other communities like some larger builders, he said.
Fulton, a private company, also has an advantage over big public builders which must answer to stockholders, Webb said. Fulton is still profitable, he added.
"We haven't just given away houses because we had to," Webb said.
John Fioramonti, with Scottsdale-based Meyers Builder Advisors, said this is the first time he's seen Fulton offer homes less than $200,000. Even so, they'll be competing with dozens of other new-home communities and prices that are closer to $120,000, Fioramonti said.
"Queen Creek is just a tough area," he said.
Still, Queen Creek is well-positioned to feed growing employment centers, such as the Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport area in Mesa and parts of Gilbert, said market analyst RL Brown.
Blandford also has a good location, which is one of the last areas to build in that part of Mesa and is close to employment centers, Brown said.
"Everybody's commute-sensitive right now," he said.
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Some buy a new home to bail on the old
The Wall Street Journal - June 2008
Next month, Michelle Augustine plans to walk away from her four-bedroom house in a Sacramento, Calif., subdivision and let the property fall into foreclosure. But before doing so, she hopes to lock in the purchase of another home nearby.
"I can find the same exact house as what I live in right now for half the price," says Ms. Augustine, 44 years old, who runs a child-care service out of her home. She says she soon will be unable to afford her monthly payments, which will jump to $4,000 from $3,300 in August, and she doesn't want to continue to own a home that is now worth $200,000 less than what she paid for it two years ago.
In markets hit hardest by falling home prices and rising foreclosures, lenders and brokers are discovering a new phenomenon: the "buy and bail," in which borrowers with good credit buy a new home - often at a much lower price - then bail out of the "upside down" mortgage on their first home.
Homeowners are able to pull off this gambit - which some lenders and real-estate agents call mortgage fraud - by taking advantage of mortgage-lending practices that allow them to buy a new primary residence before their existing residence has been sold. And with the lending industry in disarray as it tries to restructure millions of mortgages, some boast they are able to pull off the strategy with ease.
In some cases, homeowners are coached through the buy-and-bail process by real-estate agents and brokers who see nothing wrong with it. Some blame the phenomenon in part on lenders' unwillingness to cut deals or restructure loans made when home prices were inflated. "It's just a business decision," says Linda Caoili, a Sacramento real-estate agent who is working with Ms. Augustine and others who are considering walking away from their mortgages. "If you're upside-down $250,000, why would you keep it? It just doesn't make sense."
To be sure, walking away from a mortgage, even if legal, has plenty of drawbacks: Borrowers lose the ability to take out unsecured loans, since foreclosures can stay on a credit report for seven years. In some states, lenders can sue for assets, including a new house. Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored mortgage underwriter, recently revised the amount of time borrowers with a foreclosure must wait to receive a home loan to five years from four. Proposed Fannie Mae guidelines, which could take effect later this month, also would require those borrowers to make a 10 percent down payment and meet a minimum credit score after the five-year period.
While buy-and-bail is on the rise, the practice doesn't appear to be widespread. Credit is much tighter now than it was during the real-estate boom, and most families with an upside-down mortgage likely will hold on to their homes and hope the market improves in the future - even though many of them could lose their properties.
Still, with home prices falling rapidly in some parts of the country, a growing number of frustrated consumers are willing to take the risk - especially in so-called nondeficiency states such as California and Arizona, where it is more difficult for a lender to sue consumers who walk away from their mortgages. Borrowers who bought or refinanced their home with a personal line of credit, however, instead of a home-purchase loan - a common practice during the housing boom - could be sued by a lender in those states. Borrowers also could be on the hook if lenders can show that homeowners committed fraud by misrepresenting themselves on their loan application.
Yet even in cases in which a lender could attach a lien on the new home, some homeowners simply assume that lenders are too swamped. "So many people are foreclosing, is it cost effective for lenders to go after all of these people?" says Steve Hawks, a Las Vegas real-estate agent who handles lender-owned properties.
That works in the favor of borrowers such as Blair Morrow. Last year, he rented out his Sacramento home when he moved to Houston for a new job, but he lost those renters in February. He quickly arranged to buy a new home in Houston, fearing that his old residence would be foreclosed and he would take a big hit on his credit.
"I had 30 days to make a decision: Live in a rental house the rest of my life or buy a house and walk away from the one in California," says Mr. Morrow, 56, who works at a car dealership. He wrestled with the decision for a while, but justified it once Countrywide Financial Corp., the lender for his first home, approved the new home loan. "Countrywide didn't say peep," he says. Countrywide didn't return calls seeking comment.
Ms. Augustine, the Sacramento day-care provider, became a first-time homeowner in November 2006 by taking out two loans with nothing down to cover the $426,000 home purchase. With her home valued at about $220,000 now, she is actively looking in nearby communities for another one to buy before the bank forecloses on her current home.
The mortgage industry is starting to wise up to the practice and is scrambling to fight back. Buy-and-bail is "certainly fraudulent and unfortunately on an uptick," says Gwen Muse-Evans, vice president for credit policy and controls at Fannie Mae. Although she doesn't have data to quantify the size and scope of the trend, Ms. Muse-Evans says overwhelming anecdotal reports have prompted the agency to draft tougher regulations aimed at closing one big loophole that allows underwater homeowners to qualify for new home loans.
That loophole currently works like this: Homeowners provide a rental agreement showing that they will rent out their first home, and underwriters allow rental income to cover as much as 75 percent of the mortgage payments on the first home when determining whether the borrower can make payments on two homes. This allows homeowners to secure a second mortgage that they might not otherwise afford.
Under revised Fannie Mae guidelines, which could take effect next week, loan applicants who claim they will rent out their first home will have to produce supporting evidence, including an executed lease agreement. Borrowers also will have to prove that they can pay the mortgage, property taxes and insurance for both residences. The guidelines will make an exception only for borrowers who have at least 30 percent equity in their current home.
Of course, many individuals still can qualify for that second loan because of a strong credit and cash position. If they "have the intention of fraud, then at the end of the day there's really little you can do to totally prevent that," says Ms. Muse-Evans.
Some private lenders aren't waiting for Fannie's lead. In April, underwriters handling bank-owned properties at IndyMac Bancorp Inc. told brokers they would require borrowers purchasing new homes while retaining their existing home as a rental to prove that they could make full payments on both homes to qualify for a loan. A memo sent to a Southern California broker said the policy change was prompted by "losses from individuals walking away from properties after the acquisition of a new home."
An IndyMac spokesman said the bank hadn't changed its policies and had always "underwritten loans with an eye towards insuring that our borrowers could readily rent out their current property and/or reasonably support both payments."
Realtors say the new guidelines could put further pressure on sales, but Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, says the impact of such guidelines on sales would be marginal. He calls Fannie Mae's response appropriate because any artificial increase in home sales hurts the average consumer.
Meanwhile, Mr. Hawks, the Las Vegas broker, says he receives one to two dozen inquiries every week from individuals inquiring about a buy-and-bail. "People are starting to ask how much their good credit is worth," particularly when their home is underwater by hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The tactic doesn't appeal to people such as John Ristuccia, a 48-year-old Buckeye, Ariz., paper-company sales director whose job was moved to Houston in August. He is trying to complete a "short sale" for $425,000 on his five-bedroom, 4,000-square-foot home, which was appraised for $800,000 last year. In a short sale, a lender allows the sale of property for less than the amount due on the outstanding loan and often forgives the remaining debt.
Even though he might be able to qualify for a second home loan, Mr. Ristuccia says he wouldn't consider sticking his bank with his suburban Phoenix property. "Just personally I've got a problem with that," he says. "I really can't put it in terms other than it feels wrong."
Real estate agent boom over, too in Arizona
Tribune - June 2008
In the past year, real estate school instructor John Dyer has watched class enrollments dwindle, as agents struggling amid the stagnant housing market fled the business.
Many of those leaving got into the industry during the boom to make a quick buck, the Scottsdale broker said.
"When it came down to having to know what the heck you were doing, they didn't want to," Dyer said.
A growing number of Valley real estate agents are putting away their for sale signs and jumping into other jobs.
In June, the number of active real estate licenses fell to 69,771, down 5.6 percent from a year ago, according to the Arizona Department of Real Estate. Meanwhile, the number of inactive licenses has risen to more than 16,500, up from roughly 9,400 in 2002.
Some former agents are going back to school or teaching jobs. Others are bartending, waiting tables or selling cars.
Industry professionals say it's tough for inexperienced agents who haven't developed a client base to compete.
In 2001, an agent who wanted to make $100,000 needed to keep nine listings, averaging $250,000, at any given time, Dyer estimated. Now, they need to keep 27 listings to bring in the same amount, he said.
Dyer said his classes, which used to be at least half full with newer agents, are filled mostly with veterans now.
"It's the easiest business to get into. It's the hardest business to succeed at," said Mike Wasmann, president-elect of the Arizona Association of Realtors.
Agents who pushed themselves to become skillful in marketing, sales and other keys to the business are surviving, Wasmann said.
Those staying in the game are also scrambling to become experts in short sales, bank-owned properties and other niches. Dyer's classes on short sales - where a lender agrees to accept less than what a borrower owes - are standing room only these days.
"If you don't know short sales and foreclosures, you only have 20 percent of the market to deal with," he said.
Agents are taking classes on Federal Housing Administration, or FHA, loans, said Bill Gray, chief operating officer of the Arizona School of Real Estate & Business. The government-insured loans don't have specific credit score criteria and allow borrowers to put 3 percent down.
"That's the hottest market you will see today," Gray said.
Enrollment at the school has fallen to 2001 or 2002 levels, but Gray is optimistic.
In the past year, real estate school instructor John Dyer has watched class enrollments dwindle, as agents struggling amid the stagnant housing market fled the business.
Many of those leaving got into the industry during the boom to make a quick buck, the Scottsdale broker said.
"When it came down to having to know what the heck you were doing, they didn't want to," Dyer said.
A growing number of Valley real estate agents are putting away their for sale signs and jumping into other jobs.
In June, the number of active real estate licenses fell to 69,771, down 5.6 percent from a year ago, according to the Arizona Department of Real Estate. Meanwhile, the number of inactive licenses has risen to more than 16,500, up from roughly 9,400 in 2002.
Some former agents are going back to school or teaching jobs. Others are bartending, waiting tables or selling cars.
Industry professionals say it's tough for inexperienced agents who haven't developed a client base to compete.
In 2001, an agent who wanted to make $100,000 needed to keep nine listings, averaging $250,000, at any given time, Dyer estimated. Now, they need to keep 27 listings to bring in the same amount, he said.
Dyer said his classes, which used to be at least half full with newer agents, are filled mostly with veterans now.
"It's the easiest business to get into. It's the hardest business to succeed at," said Mike Wasmann, president-elect of the Arizona Association of Realtors.
Agents who pushed themselves to become skillful in marketing, sales and other keys to the business are surviving, Wasmann said.
Those staying in the game are also scrambling to become experts in short sales, bank-owned properties and other niches. Dyer's classes on short sales - where a lender agrees to accept less than what a borrower owes - are standing room only these days.
"If you don't know short sales and foreclosures, you only have 20 percent of the market to deal with," he said.
Agents are taking classes on Federal Housing Administration, or FHA, loans, said Bill Gray, chief operating officer of the Arizona School of Real Estate & Business. The government-insured loans don't have specific credit score criteria and allow borrowers to put 3 percent down.
"That's the hottest market you will see today," Gray said.
Enrollment at the school has fallen to 2001 or 2002 levels, but Gray is optimistic.
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Foreclosures hit a record high, and more coming
Asociated Press - June 2008
WASHINGTON (AP) — The foreclosure hammer is hitting ever harder. People lost their homes at the highest rate on record in the first three months of the year, and late payments soared to a new high, too — an alarming sign that the housing crisis and its damage to the national economy may only get worse.
Dumping more empty homes on an already glutted market also is likely to put a further drag on home prices — extending a vicious cycle.
Slumping home values are being blamed in large part for the rising tide of foreclosures. Troubled borrowers are left owing more to the bank than their homes are worth. They can't sell without taking a huge financial hit, so they just walk away.
In fact, Americans' equity in their homes — usually their single biggest asset — now has dropped to the lowest level on record in figures going back to the end of World War II. Homeowners' portion of equity fell to 46.2 percent, which means the amount of debt tied up in their homes exceeds the equity they have built up.
Watching their home values sink, consumers have pulled back on spending, a factor in the economy's slowdown. Buoyed by rebate checks, shoppers did get back in the buying groove in May, but analysts predict that consumers — pounded by galloping gasoline prices — will still be cautious.
“The economy is treading water, and the housing market is one of the undercurrents trying to pull it down,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.
Nearly 1 percent, or roughly 447,723 loans, fell into foreclosure during the January-to-March period, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday in its quarterly snapshot of the mortgage market. That surpassed the previous high of 0.83 percent over the last three months in 2007.
The report also found that more homeowners slipped behind on their monthly payments. The delinquency rate jumped to 6.35 percent — or 2.87 million loans — compared with 5.82 percent for the previous three months. Payments are considered delinquent if they are 30 or more days past due.
Both the rate of new foreclosures and late payments were the highest on record going back to 1979.
With prices expected to keep dropping, foreclosures and late payments “are going to continue to go up,” Jay Brinkmann, the association's vice president of research and economics, told The Associated Press.
Homeowners with tarnished credit who have subprime adjustable-rate loans took the hardest hits. Foreclosures and late payments for these borrowers also swelled to all-time highs in the first quarter.
The percentage of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages that started the foreclosure process climbed to 6.35 percent. The rate was 5.29 percent in fourth quarter, the previous high. Late payments rose to 22.07 percent from 20.02 percent, the previous high.
The association's survey covers just over 45 million home loans.
More problems also cropped up with loans to more credit worthy borrowers.
The percentage of such loans falling into foreclosure was 0.54 percent, compared with 0.41 percent at the end of last year. Late payments rose to 3.71 percent from 3.24 percent.
The numbers were higher for those prime borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages. Initially low rates reset to much higher ones, making it difficult, if not impossible, for homeowners to keep up with monthly mortgage payments. The proportion of those loans falling into foreclosure jumped to 1.55 percent from 1.06 percent. The delinquency rate rose to 6.78 percent, compared with 5.51 percent.
The number one problem is the drop in home prices,” Brinkmann said. Declining prices, especially in newer built areas, “are hurting people's ability to recover when they run into trouble — a divorce or loss of job,” he said. “In other days, you could sell the home. But because home prices have fallen so much, in many of those cases, the homes are going into foreclosure.”
California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona accounted for 89 percent of the total increase in new home foreclosures, he said. Those are places where prices have fallen sharply and there was a lot of home building, creating too much supply, Brinkmann said.
These extra inventories from foreclosures complicate what is already a heavily built situation,” said David Seiders, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders.
After a five-year boom, the housing market fell into a deep slump two years ago. That dragged down sales, and prices with it. As the value of homes plummeted, many newer homeowners found themselves owing more on their mortgages than their homes were worth.
Nearly 8.5 million homeowners had negative or no equity in their homes at the end of March, representing more than 16 percent of all homeowners with mortgages, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. He estimates that will increase to 12.2 million, or almost one out of every four homeowners, by the end of June.
Nearly three in 10 people say they are worried their home's value will decline over the next two years, according to a recent Associated Press-AOL Money & Finance Poll. Sixty percent said they definitely won't buy a home in the next two years. That's up from 53 percent two years ago.
As foreclosures and late payments climbed, financial companies took multibillion-dollar losses when their investments in mortgage-backed securities soured. A credit crisis spread, crimping other types of financing. The fallout plunged Wall Street in turmoil, disrupting the normal functioning of markets.
All those troubles have pushed the economy to the brink of a recession. Employers, cutting costs, have eliminated more than a quarter-million jobs in the first four months of this year.
To bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve made aggressive interest rate cuts. But with inflation on the rise, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this week sent his strongest signal yet that the central bank's rate-cutting campaign is coming to an end.
The Bush administration has urged lenders to freeze rates for some homeowners and encouraged lenders to rework mortgage terms so troubled borrowers can stay in their homes.
A congressional plan that includes a foreclosure prevention program has stalled as lawmakers figure out how to pay for it.
Lenders slash prices on foreclosed houses
Associated Press - June 2008
Lenders stung by the housing bust are slashing prices dramatically to rid themselves of an unprecedented number of foreclosed properties, sparking bidding wars in some places that harken back to the market's go-go years and may signal the bottom is near.
The trend is most dramatic in many parts of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, where prices skyrocketed during the housing boom and are now falling precipitously. Sales of foreclosures, vacant new homes and other distressed properties now dominate some markets, causing grief for individual homeowners who need to sell for other reasons, like a job in a new city.
Nationwide, one out of every four sales between January and March was a distressed sale, and that figure jumps to more than 50 percent in the hardest-hit areas like Las Vegas, Detroit and distant suburbs of Los Angeles, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. The number can be as high as 90 percent in some newly built subdivisions, where loose lending standards and speculation ran rampant, real estate agents say.
By setting prices at extraordinarily low levels, say, $175,000 for a house that sold for $350,000 three years ago, banks can spark multiple offers.
"It's not uncommon to have 10 to 20 offers on one house, and for the house to end up selling for more than its market price," said Erin Attardi, a Sacramento Realtor. The strategy, she said, allows the bank to be selective, picking buyers with solid financing or those able to pay in cash.
Over the past year, as the housing crisis accelerated, the number of properties turned over to bank ownership has more than doubled. As of April, there were more than 660,000 such properties in the U.S., up from 254,000 in April last year, according to real estate information company First American CoreLogic.
And there's a risk this isn't the bottom at all.
Investor demand could be swamped by the foreclosures expected to hit the market over the next year.
A record of almost 3 million American homeowners were at least one month late on their mortgages in the first quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday. And another record of almost 450,000 had entered the final stage of foreclosure.
Wherever the turning point, buyers are finding that the deep discounts on bank-owned homes can be a fabulous opportunity, but also a source of anguish. Sally Zuniga, 29, and her husband have been looking to buy their first home outside Sacramento and have been unsuccessful so far due to the intense competition.
"It's been aggravating, frustrating and emotionally straining," said Zuniga, a media buyer for an advertising agency.
This week, the couple put in an offer for a three-bedroom house with a pool that's listed as a "short sale," where the home is sold for less than the amount owed on the mortgage.
They've given the property owner until July 18 to respond - an indication of the longer period it commonly takes for such arrangements to be worked out. Their offer of $195,000 was $6,000 over the asking price, in an effort to make it stand out from competitors.
Some in the real estate industry see such competition as a sign that the housing market's gloom is lifting.
"It's actually stimulated the market," said Janice Ziesig, owner of Z House Realty Group in Orlando, Fla. "Things are moving now - more so than they were."
In the Orlando area, about a third of bank-owned properties receive more than one offer, Ziesig estimates. However, deals are more likely to fall through for foreclosures, she says, and properties often return to the market.
For would-be sellers who need to move soon, it's a particularly painful situation. In many cases, sellers whose houses are now worth less than their mortgage must bring cash to the closing table to pay off the balance of the loan. They can find renters or postpone their moving plans.
Leslie Jordan pulled her family's six-bedroom house outside Orlando off the market last month after listing it for nearly a year. She was willing to sell for $415,000, down from her original asking price of $565,000, but wasn't able to reach a deal.
While most of the foreclosures in Jordan's area are on smaller homes, the overall environment of soaring foreclosures and overbuilding has pushed prices down dramatically.
"The buyers, they just want a deal," said Jordan, who had hoped to move to a less-dense area with better schools. "We just have to wait until things turn around."
For real estate agents, helping banks sell off properties is one of the only flourishing businesses these days. But it's not for everybody.
Agents can easily pay hundreds of dollars a month on upkeep - including utility bills, cleaning and lawn care - and must go through the hassle of getting reimbursed by the bank. They sometimes have to evict homeowners, tenants or squatters. And in many cases, they have to deal with vandalism or theft of everything from copper pipes to appliances and air conditioners.
Jeff Dolfinger, a broker in Poughkeepsie N.Y., who specializes in managing and selling foreclosed properties, estimates that about 90 percent of those homes in his market are being bought by investors.
"To them, this is the best real estate market ever," he said. "They'll wait for this turmoil to end and they'll put the properties right back on the market again"
Inevitably, there are tensions between real estate agents and mortgage companies, particularly when a short sale or foreclosure gets tied up in a bureaucratic tangle.
"The lenders don't work on the weekends," which are the busiest time for house-hunters, said Cindy Jones, associate broker with Re/Max Allegiance in Lakeridge, Va. "If you make on offer on a Thursday, the earliest anybody's going to (examine) it is Monday or Tuesday of the following week,"
A quick way for a lender to dispose of properties is through an auction. However, lenders lose an average of 56 percent of a property's value through auctions, compared with a 40 percent loss for ordinary sales, according to a report last month by Fitch Ratings.
Nevertheless, the report found that the use of auctions has been rising as lenders try to cope with rising inventory.
Some are more hesitant to cut prices. Chris Bowden, vice president of HomeSteps, a division of Freddie Mac that handles foreclosure sales, says being too aggressive on price can affect the value of nearby properties, which sometimes are also owned by Freddie Mac.
"We want to make sure that we are getting back every dollar that we can and preserving values in neighborhoods," Bowden said. "Our goal is to try to get the highest value we can for the property, and yet we've got to remain competitive."
Still, with foreclosures continuing to rise, there may be no better option than to follow the market.
"We're reacting to market conditions very quickly," said Cary Sternberg, who heads IndyMac Bancorp Inc.'s bank-owned properties division. "We're in the business of making loans to people. we're not in the business of owning property."
Lenders stung by the housing bust are slashing prices dramatically to rid themselves of an unprecedented number of foreclosed properties, sparking bidding wars in some places that harken back to the market's go-go years and may signal the bottom is near.
The trend is most dramatic in many parts of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, where prices skyrocketed during the housing boom and are now falling precipitously. Sales of foreclosures, vacant new homes and other distressed properties now dominate some markets, causing grief for individual homeowners who need to sell for other reasons, like a job in a new city.
Nationwide, one out of every four sales between January and March was a distressed sale, and that figure jumps to more than 50 percent in the hardest-hit areas like Las Vegas, Detroit and distant suburbs of Los Angeles, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. The number can be as high as 90 percent in some newly built subdivisions, where loose lending standards and speculation ran rampant, real estate agents say.
By setting prices at extraordinarily low levels, say, $175,000 for a house that sold for $350,000 three years ago, banks can spark multiple offers.
"It's not uncommon to have 10 to 20 offers on one house, and for the house to end up selling for more than its market price," said Erin Attardi, a Sacramento Realtor. The strategy, she said, allows the bank to be selective, picking buyers with solid financing or those able to pay in cash.
Over the past year, as the housing crisis accelerated, the number of properties turned over to bank ownership has more than doubled. As of April, there were more than 660,000 such properties in the U.S., up from 254,000 in April last year, according to real estate information company First American CoreLogic.
And there's a risk this isn't the bottom at all.
Investor demand could be swamped by the foreclosures expected to hit the market over the next year.
A record of almost 3 million American homeowners were at least one month late on their mortgages in the first quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday. And another record of almost 450,000 had entered the final stage of foreclosure.
Wherever the turning point, buyers are finding that the deep discounts on bank-owned homes can be a fabulous opportunity, but also a source of anguish. Sally Zuniga, 29, and her husband have been looking to buy their first home outside Sacramento and have been unsuccessful so far due to the intense competition.
"It's been aggravating, frustrating and emotionally straining," said Zuniga, a media buyer for an advertising agency.
This week, the couple put in an offer for a three-bedroom house with a pool that's listed as a "short sale," where the home is sold for less than the amount owed on the mortgage.
They've given the property owner until July 18 to respond - an indication of the longer period it commonly takes for such arrangements to be worked out. Their offer of $195,000 was $6,000 over the asking price, in an effort to make it stand out from competitors.
Some in the real estate industry see such competition as a sign that the housing market's gloom is lifting.
"It's actually stimulated the market," said Janice Ziesig, owner of Z House Realty Group in Orlando, Fla. "Things are moving now - more so than they were."
In the Orlando area, about a third of bank-owned properties receive more than one offer, Ziesig estimates. However, deals are more likely to fall through for foreclosures, she says, and properties often return to the market.
For would-be sellers who need to move soon, it's a particularly painful situation. In many cases, sellers whose houses are now worth less than their mortgage must bring cash to the closing table to pay off the balance of the loan. They can find renters or postpone their moving plans.
Leslie Jordan pulled her family's six-bedroom house outside Orlando off the market last month after listing it for nearly a year. She was willing to sell for $415,000, down from her original asking price of $565,000, but wasn't able to reach a deal.
While most of the foreclosures in Jordan's area are on smaller homes, the overall environment of soaring foreclosures and overbuilding has pushed prices down dramatically.
"The buyers, they just want a deal," said Jordan, who had hoped to move to a less-dense area with better schools. "We just have to wait until things turn around."
For real estate agents, helping banks sell off properties is one of the only flourishing businesses these days. But it's not for everybody.
Agents can easily pay hundreds of dollars a month on upkeep - including utility bills, cleaning and lawn care - and must go through the hassle of getting reimbursed by the bank. They sometimes have to evict homeowners, tenants or squatters. And in many cases, they have to deal with vandalism or theft of everything from copper pipes to appliances and air conditioners.
Jeff Dolfinger, a broker in Poughkeepsie N.Y., who specializes in managing and selling foreclosed properties, estimates that about 90 percent of those homes in his market are being bought by investors.
"To them, this is the best real estate market ever," he said. "They'll wait for this turmoil to end and they'll put the properties right back on the market again"
Inevitably, there are tensions between real estate agents and mortgage companies, particularly when a short sale or foreclosure gets tied up in a bureaucratic tangle.
"The lenders don't work on the weekends," which are the busiest time for house-hunters, said Cindy Jones, associate broker with Re/Max Allegiance in Lakeridge, Va. "If you make on offer on a Thursday, the earliest anybody's going to (examine) it is Monday or Tuesday of the following week,"
A quick way for a lender to dispose of properties is through an auction. However, lenders lose an average of 56 percent of a property's value through auctions, compared with a 40 percent loss for ordinary sales, according to a report last month by Fitch Ratings.
Nevertheless, the report found that the use of auctions has been rising as lenders try to cope with rising inventory.
Some are more hesitant to cut prices. Chris Bowden, vice president of HomeSteps, a division of Freddie Mac that handles foreclosure sales, says being too aggressive on price can affect the value of nearby properties, which sometimes are also owned by Freddie Mac.
"We want to make sure that we are getting back every dollar that we can and preserving values in neighborhoods," Bowden said. "Our goal is to try to get the highest value we can for the property, and yet we've got to remain competitive."
Still, with foreclosures continuing to rise, there may be no better option than to follow the market.
"We're reacting to market conditions very quickly," said Cary Sternberg, who heads IndyMac Bancorp Inc.'s bank-owned properties division. "We're in the business of making loans to people. we're not in the business of owning property."
NAR Denies Recession, Says Home Sales and Prices Will Pick Up in Second Half of 2008
National Realty News - June 2008
WASHINGTON, D.C. - Home sales and prices throughout most of the country are poised for improvement in the second half of 2008, and the recovery will vary by market, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS® said during NAR’s Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo.
Middle-America cities that performed evenly over the past few years – like Cincinnati, Milwaukee and the Kansas City, Mo., area – are likely to experience home price gains in the 20 to 30 percent range over the next five years, while markets like Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix could see prices go up as much as 50 percent during that time period, Yun said.
Yun blamed most of the softening of the housing market over the last year on the “subprime mess,” where consumers with blemished credit records got loans they couldn’t afford when the interest rates reset to higher levels.
“In fact, if you look at where home prices fell the most, it’s the markets were subprime loans were prevalent,” Yun said. Cape Coral, Fla.; Detroit; Las Vegas; Miami; Orlando, Fla.; Phoenix and Riverside, Calif. were among the cities with a high percentage of subprime lending and where the markets suffered the biggest downturns, he explained.
“It’s important to keep things in context,” he said. “While much of the media is focusing on the fact that the rate of foreclosures doubled this year from historic averages, the foreclosure rate has gone from 1 percent of all homeowners with mortgages to 2 percent. Foreclosures are being driven principally by subprime loans.”
He further explained that more than half of today’s foreclosures are concentrated in the subprime market. The great majority of homeowners are making their mortgage payments on time.
Now that the subprime market has dried up, and loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration and those purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making a comeback, the housing markets will strengthen and prices are likely to begin a steady uptick in the coming months, Yun said.
Yun urged the Congress and White House to enact NAR-supported legislation to modernize FHA programs, reform regulation of the government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), establish a first-time home buyer tax credit, and make the temporary increases to the conforming loan limits established by the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 permanent.
“These measures would quickly stabilize the housing markets and get fence-sitters into the market to buy homes,” Yun said.
“There are many reasons for people to get into the housing market today, and very few reasons not to. With the plentiful supply of homes for sale at affordable prices, interest rates approaching 40-year lows, and the strong track record of housing as a good long-term investment, conditions are ripe for buyers,” he added. “Those are the facts, plain and simple.”
As for a recession, it’s not happening, Yun said. “A slowdown, yes, but the definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. It’s not in the cards – no matter how you look at it.”
WASHINGTON, D.C. - Home sales and prices throughout most of the country are poised for improvement in the second half of 2008, and the recovery will vary by market, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS® said during NAR’s Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo.
Middle-America cities that performed evenly over the past few years – like Cincinnati, Milwaukee and the Kansas City, Mo., area – are likely to experience home price gains in the 20 to 30 percent range over the next five years, while markets like Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix could see prices go up as much as 50 percent during that time period, Yun said.
Yun blamed most of the softening of the housing market over the last year on the “subprime mess,” where consumers with blemished credit records got loans they couldn’t afford when the interest rates reset to higher levels.
“In fact, if you look at where home prices fell the most, it’s the markets were subprime loans were prevalent,” Yun said. Cape Coral, Fla.; Detroit; Las Vegas; Miami; Orlando, Fla.; Phoenix and Riverside, Calif. were among the cities with a high percentage of subprime lending and where the markets suffered the biggest downturns, he explained.
“It’s important to keep things in context,” he said. “While much of the media is focusing on the fact that the rate of foreclosures doubled this year from historic averages, the foreclosure rate has gone from 1 percent of all homeowners with mortgages to 2 percent. Foreclosures are being driven principally by subprime loans.”
He further explained that more than half of today’s foreclosures are concentrated in the subprime market. The great majority of homeowners are making their mortgage payments on time.
Now that the subprime market has dried up, and loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration and those purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making a comeback, the housing markets will strengthen and prices are likely to begin a steady uptick in the coming months, Yun said.
Yun urged the Congress and White House to enact NAR-supported legislation to modernize FHA programs, reform regulation of the government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), establish a first-time home buyer tax credit, and make the temporary increases to the conforming loan limits established by the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 permanent.
“These measures would quickly stabilize the housing markets and get fence-sitters into the market to buy homes,” Yun said.
“There are many reasons for people to get into the housing market today, and very few reasons not to. With the plentiful supply of homes for sale at affordable prices, interest rates approaching 40-year lows, and the strong track record of housing as a good long-term investment, conditions are ripe for buyers,” he added. “Those are the facts, plain and simple.”
As for a recession, it’s not happening, Yun said. “A slowdown, yes, but the definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. It’s not in the cards – no matter how you look at it.”
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