Friday, June 29, 2007

Valley home builders battle slump

Tribune - June 2007

With the record home sales of 2005 long past, Valley builders aren't sitting back, hoping for a return to the glory days. May permits and sales

They're repricing homes, changing up what's included in option packages, ramping up marketing and cutting staff.

Some 3,135 new homes were sold across the Valley in May, a slight uptick from the month before, the latest Phoenix Housing Market Letter by analyst RL Brown shows.

But that's still a 26 percent dip from May of last year.

Year-over-year sales also are down.

The first five months of 2007 had 16,449 new home sales, compared with 20,522 in the same period last year.

Developers are battling the same basic problem they have been for months now: a huge oversupply of homes on the market, Brown said. Many potential new home buyers need to sell their old ones first and can't, he said.

"We have too many homes on the market, and too many houses are overpriced for the market conditions," he said.

Valleywide, there are currently more than 50,000 existing homes for sale.

Sellers haven't gotten realistic and are asking for too much, Brown said. Creeping interest rates and tightening lending standards are affecting affordability.

Rising foreclosure rates also are a danger. Still, the Valley's housing market is healthy by historical standards, he said.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

$500K house takes its toll

Tribune - June 2007

A 25-year veteran of the development business, Gilbert homeowner Anthony Amendola knows how to spot quality construction. That's why he hired Toll Brothers - a national builder he respected - to build his more than $500,000 luxury home in the southeast Valley's Power Ranch development. But on his first walk-through shortly before the deal was set to close, Amendola realized his dream home was a nightmare. Sinks, cabinets and faucets were missing. Gaping holes surrounded outlets. The electricity wasn't turned on.

"My reaction was complete disgust," he said.

Nearly two years later, he still has unresolved issues with the workmanship, and he isn't alone. Other neighbors in the Toll subdivision have similar complaints. They say Toll is a good company. But some believe the frenzied pace of construction during the housing boom led to shoddy workmanship as builders struggled to find enough qualified laborers to meet demand - a theory industry observers say is likely true in some cases.

America's largest luxury-home builder, Toll caters to move-up, empty-nester and active-adult home buyers in 22 states. It has more than 20 developments in Arizona with 10,000 to 12,000 homes. Toll has fixed some problems but, neighbors say, not without repeated calls. Toll Brothers takes every complaint it receives seriously and responds in a timely manner, said Linda Hanford, the builder's southwest marketing director.

"We do strive to resolve everything as best we can," she said. "We want to maintain our name and reputation."

Every Toll home has a nine-page inspection list, and each owner is given two walk-throughs before closing.

"We want people to be able to entertain the night they move into their house," Hanford said.

Before Amendola signed the contract for his roughly 5,700-square-foot home, he spent eight hours inspecting it and counted more than 200 defects. Nearly two years and 14 letters later, he still has a list of 15 problems. In that time, he's dealt with an upstairs shower that leaked water into the basement, windows that don't shut properly, a back yard wall with loose concrete blocks and more.

A vice president at Lauth Development in Phoenix, Amendola estimates he's spent more than 380 hours inspecting his home and dealing with Toll - losing the equivalent of $86,000 or so in work time.

Toll has made repairs, but if you stop calling they disappear again, Amendola said.

Toll's average time for initial response to complaints is 24 hours, Hanford said. The company has a large number of customer service representatives, who are assigned to and familiar with specific communities, she said. They go to each site, evaluate the problem and schedule subcontractors to do the work.

"Sometimes, you have to respond on multiple occasions to a problem, and, sometimes, that can be spaced out more than the customer might want," she said.

GROWING FRUSTRATIONS

Since April 2004, Gilbert inspection company Tony Hecht Enterprises has inspected at least 57 Toll homes Valleywide, including 11 in Power Ranch.

Toll isn't a bad builder, but its homes seem to have more defects than those of other builders, said Hecht, whose company inspected 1,600 to 1,800 homes last year.

At an average size of 4,130 square feet, the Toll homes Hecht has inspected have averaged 61.5 defects. Other similar-sized homes have closer to 49 problems, he said. The number of defects in the Power Ranch homes ranged from 52 to 144.

Hecht recently added a 20 percent surcharge for checking Toll homes because inspections take so much longer than what's typical.

"It appears that Toll Brothers just does not have their arms wrapped around quality control," said Hecht, who inspected Amendola's house.

That is Hecht's opinion, said Alan Euvrard, vice president of Toll's Arizona division.

"He makes his living that way," he said. "I think you need to take everything with a grain of salt."

Euvrard added that, to his knowledge, all of the Power Ranch complaints, including Amendola's, have been addressed and taken care of. Amendola, though, says he still has outstanding issues.

For homeowner Brian Eastley, the problem comes down to quality control.

Eastley walked by the construction site of his home daily, finding new issues, such as cracking in the foundation slab and stucco. He addressed those problems with Toll but still faced more when the home was done, including bubbles and trowel marks on walls.

"They're only as good as the labor they've hired," he said.

CONSTRUCTION FRENZY

During the height of the housing boom, builders were so busy that they couldn't find enough skilled labor, said John Fioramonti with research firm Hanley Wood Market Intelligence. Job superintendents were spread too thin and many didn't have experience in mass production, he said.

"It was a real aberrational time in terms of the volume that was going on," Fioramonti said. "Nobody had a good handle on how to deal with it."

Supervisors were under horrendous pressure, and most builders weren't restricting sales, Hecht said. City building inspectors were also overwhelmed, he said.

Gilbert has 18 inspectors who visit home sites a dozen or more times each during construction, spokesman Greg Svelund said. They look at underground work, framing, drywall and other elements.

"It's a big job for sure," Svelund said.

Gilbert issues from 300 to 500 new-home permits each month. That translates to about 5,000 annually for the past five years to 10 years, he said.

Inspectors focus on spotting functionality and safety issues versus aesthetics. Cracking in the stucco is common and isn't necessarily something that's a code violation, Svelund said.

The boom may have exacerbated the problem, but overall construction quality has been declining for years, said Dean Kashiwagi, a professor at Arizona State University's Ira A. Fulton School of Engineering.

REGULATING QUALITY

Despite the surge in building in recent years, the Arizona Registrar of Contractors hasn't seen a corresponding huge increase in homeowner complaints about poor workmanship, said Brian Livingston, legislative and intergovernmental affairs director at the state regulatory agency.

The registrar receives between 11,000 and 13,000 complaints annually.

Builders average three homeowner callbacks for every new home, National Association of Home Builders spokesman David Jaffe said.

Labor shortages during the boom may have resulted in some quality issues but not as a general trend, Jaffe said. Builders who have problems are quick to fix them, he said.

MAKING PROGRESS

Toll homeowner John Kenneally has been glad to see some progress being made in recent weeks on longstanding problems.

He's battled sink holes in his yard created by water runoff from the roof. Window wells in the basement have also filled with mud when it rained, and water has seeped in through the walls, Kenneally said.

Workers have come out repeatedly to try to fix the problems, though not without the pressure of repeated calls, he said. Kenneally worries that his home's value may be hurt.

"We've had mold, and now I'll have to fill out a mold disclosure if I go to sell or rent the house," he said.

Despite his frustrations, Kenneally said he loves the house and believes Toll is a great company. But, for a company like Toll, it shouldn't have to come to this, he said. "They're a luxury home builder they should be correcting this up front," he said.

Toll was originally using an outside warranty firm that wasn't working, so the builder took over, Euvrard said. Now, it takes workers probably less than a week to get out to homes, he said. "We go back as often as we have to to get it correct," Euvrard said.

Amendola said the latest supervisor to oversee his home is more responsive. Still, he said he would do things differently if given the chance. "This is supposed to be top of the line," he said. "For the price that you pay, I would have gone to a custom builder."

Monday, June 18, 2007

Mortgage rates up sharply in month

The Arizona Republic - June 2007

If you blinked, you might have missed the jump in mortgage rates.

Responding to action in the bond market, lenders have pushed up interest rates on many types of loans, including the 30-year fixed variety that's favored by so many borrowers.

"Fixed mortgage rates have risen by more than half a percentage point in the last month," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at rate-tracker Bankrate.com.

For a person seeking a $300,000 fixed mortgage, a half-point hike adds about $100 to the monthly payment.

Julie Alsayed, a vice president at Bank of Arizona, said she hasn't noticed any drop in mortgage business yet. "But some of my clients wished they had locked in rates weeks ago," she said.

Rates have risen as bond-market investors came to realize the Federal Reserve isn't likely to cut interest rates near term with inflation pressures still visible and the economy growing. Bond-market action influences mortgage rates.

Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages have jumped from a March average low of 6.16 percent to 6.84 percent, McBride said. Mortgages with adjustable rates also are climbing. Even with the upticks, people with adjustable-rate loans should try to refinance into fixed loans, McBride advises, as ARM rates are still rising.

"For people facing adjustable-rate resets," he said, "fixed loans are still the place to be."

Phoenix investment managers Harry and Roy Papp believe a five-year stretch of plentiful money probably is at an end.

"If we're right, liquidity will continue drying up and this will produce somewhat higher interest rates," they wrote last week.

Baby boomers boosting market for second homes

Associated Press - June 2007

For years, the wealthy have bought second homes to use as vacation retreats and benefit from the appreciation of the property. Increasingly, middle class families are looking more seriously at the second home market - especially baby boomers who want to line up a home now for retirement later.

"The demand for second homes is big and growing," said Joseph H. Badal, president and chief executive of Thornburg Mortgage in Santa Fe. "Baby boomers are feeding the second-home buying now, and young families are also in the market."

But buying a second home requires a major financial commitment, so consumers need to think carefully before taking the plunge.

"Many people discover too late that the cost of a second home outweighs the benefits," Badal said. "There's the mortgage, insurance, taxes ... and maybe they don't use it as much as they thought. It really requires planning."

Although rising interest rates have been slowing home-buying in general, the market for second homes has remained strong, according to figures from the National Association of Realtors.

As sales of primary residences and investment homes dropped last year, sales of vacation homes rose nearly 5 percent to a record 1.07 million from 1.02 million in 2005, the Washington, D.C.-based trade group said.

The Realtors said the typical vacation home buyer was 44 years old, came from a household with a median annual income of $102,000 and purchased a property that was about 215 miles from his or her primary residence.

Friday, June 15, 2007

Fewer Ariz. homeowners falling behind

The Arizona Republic - June 2007

The number of Arizona homeowners behind on their mortgage payments fell during the first quarter, a sign the housing market may be on the rebound.

Mortgage delinquencies across the state dropped to 3 percent at the end of March from 3.51 percent at the end of 2006, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.

Nationally, the delinquency rate fell only to 4.84 percent, from 4.95 percent.

Delinquencies are a leading indicator of foreclosures. The drop could mean fewer people in Arizona are likely to lose their homes next year as long as the rate of people behind on their loan payments continues to dip.

"It's one less black cloud over Phoenix's housing market," said Jay Butler, director of realty studies at Arizona State University's Morrison School. "But it will take a couple of quarters of lower delinquency rates and inventories of homes for sale to see if the market is turning."

The falling rates could be attributed to mortgage bankers working with borrowers instead of taking back homes they can't sell for a profit. Another reason could be that more borrowers are lowering their payments by refinancing out of adjustable-rate or subprime mortgages.

Although Arizona's delinquency rate is down, its spike in foreclosures during the past year has put it among the top five states for increases in the number of people actually losing their homes.

The same states that led the nation for price run-ups, subprime loans and speculator buying sprees a few year ago - California, Nevada, Florida and Arizona - now lead the country in new foreclosures.

Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers, said foreclosures nationally would have dropped if these states hadn't posted such big increases.

Arizona's foreclosure rate climbed from 0.76 percent of all loans at the end of 2006 to 0.95 percent of all loans at the end of March. The state's overall rate is still low compared with the rest of the country, but the recent increase signals several more thousand people are about to lose their homes.

Speculators, who bought multiple properties, often using more risky adjustable-rate and subprime loans, are driving the recent increase in metro Phoenix home foreclosures.

At least 25 percent of all Valley homes to fall into foreclosure this year are owned by investors, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of property records from the real estate data firm Information Market.

Lenders can move to foreclosure on a property after a borrower has missed one payment. Many lenders wait three months to see whether struggling homeowners can catch up.

Market watchers say that, besides speculators, many of the Arizona homeowners facing foreclosure either paid more than they could afford or took out adjustable-rate mortgages, betting their incomes or home values would rise.

"Even though the job market in metro Phoenix is good and real incomes are going up for many, some people made bad moves in the housing market and are paying the price now," said Elliott Pollack, an Arizona economist and real estate investor.

He said that as those troubled speculators and homeowners either sell, refinance or lose their properties, delinquencies will fall and foreclosures will follow.

Real Estate Sky Won't Fall: Here's Why

June 2007

Real estate hasn't made much of a case for itself lately and it's not getting much help from any of the sub industries, such as builders and mortgage makers. Just in the past few weeks, so called experts from the mortgage industry, the building industry, and the resale real estate industry have all been quoted as saying that the sky is falling.

Nice job guys!

And while real estate's reputation as the number one investment is on the ropes, the general media and other investment categories have stepped up their attacks on real estate value.

What do you need to know?

1.The Sky isn't falling.

The real estate market always fluctuates.

Real estate sales prices are largely determined by the principal of substitution and reflect the uniqueness of the property, at a specific point in time, competing against only those other similar properties that happen to be available for sale, at that point in time.

If there are many similar homes available at that time, there will be downward pressure on sales prices. As an expanding population absorbs the excess, competition for a dwindling resource will cause selling prices to escalate.

2.Real estate is unique.

There's a reason that homes and real estate aren't traded like commodities on the Chicago Mercantile. They are too dissimilar. Even each tract home has a somewhat different location, orientation, lot dimension, proximity, and view.

3.There is no bubble.

The value of real estate isn't driven by speculation; it's driven by its utility. If the economy moves away, such as in the rust-belt, that utility may decline. If high paying jobs are headed into a region, the value of the scarcest of all commodities, real estate will rise.

Increasing development costs absolutely guarantee that new construction will cost more than existing properties are selling for.

This factor alone has caused many developers to mothball projects in the pipeline until shortages again push prices up.

4.Value is a complicated cocktail.

Assessed value, appraised value, market value, replacement value, and selling price all mean something different. When the media says that real estate values are falling, they really mean that the prices people paid for a small number of homes, last month, was less than what a different group of people paid for a different assortment the month before.

5.There is always a baseline of demand.

An increasing population must be housed. There is a natural ebb and flow, not a boom bust. At various times, demand outstrips supply; supply is increased until the surge recedes to baseline or below.

6.There is always a baseline of mortgage defaults.

There will always be unforeseen circumstances that will bring some homeowners into default. Even in good economic times. And even with good mortgage loans. In an appreciating market, they are able to sell in a short period of time. So, in most markets, foreclosure activity has been below the historic baseline.

Now, it could increase, spiking a little to reflect those who can no longer survive on increasing equity and then may level out at baseline again. When the next rapid appreciation cycle begins, and it almost assuredly will, rates may fall back below the newly adjusted baseline.

7.There is no risk.

Save the term risk for high stakes poker in Vegas.

Buying real estate isn't inherently risky. But it isn't a get-rich-quick scheme, either. It's a formula for building long term wealth.

8.Real estate is a great way to build wealth.

You have to live somewhere. If you rent, you are making some or all of someone else's mortgage payment. But even if you have to work two jobs and barely scrape by to make your own mortgage payment, you are building equity that over time will be quite substantial.


So, perhaps, don't believe every "the sky if falling" report or article. Educate yourself on the market and happy wealth homeowning!

Friday, June 8, 2007

10-Year Treasury Note Yield Rises Above 5 Percent; Could Keep Lifting Mortgage Rates

NEW YORK (AP) June 2007

Investors' expectations of an interest rate cut -- and home buyers' hopes for cheaper mortgages -- seem to be disappearing.

The yield on the Treasury's 10-year note passed 5 percent Thursday, closing at a session high of 5.13 percent, its highest point since mid-July. Some market watchers say the yield is likely to climb higher as bond prices weaken, making it even harder for consumers to finance home puchases and for companies to borrow money.

If the yield reaches 5.25 percent, a five-year high, it would match the Federal Reserve's current benchmark interest rate -- signaling that the market is, in a sense, beating the central bank to the punch in hiking rates to curbing inflation.

The Fed has kept rates on hold since last summer, after about two years of gradual increases.

Average consumers may be asking themselves why rates are going up now, but some market watchers are asking themselves why they went down in the first place and are bracing for the rise to continue. The Fed has repeated consistently that its primary goal is to lower inflation, and because inflation has shown few signs of abating, central bankers feel hard-pressed to drop rates.

"It was a bias toward tightening, but the market didn't reflect that," said Strong Capital Management economist Jay Mueller.

Mortgage rates are rising because they're tied to the 10-year yield. Although fixed mortgage rates remain below their levels from a year ago, they have been advancing recently along with Treasury yields, adding to worries about sluggish home sales and faltering home prices.

The average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 6.12 percent Thursday, up from 5.98 percent a week ago, according to Bankrate.com. The average 15-year fixed mortgage was at 5.82 percent, up from 5.69 percent last week.
It's too soon to say if the trend will continue, but investors who had high hopes for a Fed rate cut this year are now pricing in their reduced expectations. Economic data has been too strong to warrant lower rates anytime soon; despite the tepid housing market, the job market has remained stable, wages keep ticking up and manufacturing activity is clawing its way back from stagnancy.

Other Treasury issues tumbled Thursday, too, driving up the two-year note's yield to 5.05 percent and the 30-year bond's yield to 5.22 percent.
The United States isn't alone in rising yields. Bond yields in the Eurozone, Great Britain, Japan, and other economies have advanced as central banks around the world gradually hike interest rates to limit inflation -- which appears to be accelerating now as it catches up to the strong global growth over the past few years.

On Thursday, New Zealand's central bank surprised markets by raising its key interest rate to a record high 8 percent from 7.75 percent, a day after the European Central Bank raised its key rate to the highest level in nearly six years and left open the possibility of more increases.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank, characterized the relatively high prices and low yields in the U.S. Treasury market over the past nine months as a bubble. "Rates are too low," he said, and predicted the 10-year yield will lift to 5.75 percent.

Peter Schiff, president of investment firm Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Conn., forecasts the 10-yield will break through 5.5 percent by the fall and soar to 7 percent in about a year, pushing the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate above 8 percent.

Not everyone believes yields will rise that high; RBS Greenwich Capital bond strategist David Ader, for one, predicts that the 10-year yield could possibly float to 5.25 percent, but it then would retreat.

Still, any big upswings in the interim could squeeze Americans looking to buy a home or refinance.

"Five percent is not in itself a big deal, but a move to 5.25 percent or 5.5 percent could cause some discomfort for people taking out a mortgage," Ader said.

In addition to pressuring home prices, an extended increase in Treasury yields could put a damper on a big source of income for many Americans: Wall Street.

The stock market has been soaring, with the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 index reaching all-time highs. But rates affect corporate America's ability to make deals, which have been on a tear and a major catalyst behind stocks' ascent.

Ablin noted that currently, about two-thirds of the 30 Dow components have a free cash-flow yield above the benchmark interest rate. Cash-flow yield is calculated by dividing the cash-flow per share by the market price per share -- the higher the company's yield, the more attractive an investment it is to buyers. If rates catch up to more companies' yields, the recent dealmaking surge, though unlikely to reverse course, could taper a bit.

"As interest rates go up, the rising tide is making more and more opportunities go under water," Ablin said. "It's going to raise the bar on what it takes to actually do a deal."

Thursday, June 7, 2007

Impact fees to increase Chandler's house costs

The Arizona Republic - June 2007

The cost of a new house in Chandler will go up $6,000 today when the city's new impact fees take effect.

The increase to $19,538, from $13,587, on a single-family home makes it among the Valley's highest. Builders must pay those fees when they apply for construction permits, and they are passed on to buyers.

Gilbert's residential impact fees go up next month to $15,968 from $14,633, per home. Avondale recently increased its fees from $9,999, to $18,021, and the Mesa City Council is expected to vote tonight to raise its $5,233 fee to $8,532.

Proponents say Chandler needs the money to meet demands for new parks, roads and water lines as the city nears residential build-out. Opponents, including home builders, said the hike unfairly burdens newcomers with a bigger share of those costs.

City officials estimate there is room in Chandler for about 15,000 more houses.